Week of 4/8 trading plan

The Euro has continued to struggle and now the optimism that investors once had is now gone, again. We now have produced a very sexy head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with my neckline drawn at 3020. Looking at the 4 hour, I would like to see a retracement back up to the 3150-3180 area for a short opportunity. I see the 4 hr 50 ma starting to curl rather strongly which indicates solid downside pressure. If I can get a short in the 3150-3180 area, my TP would be located around the .3020 area.







 


AUDUSD

Right now on the 4hr, my primary focus is this .0350 area. I have horizontal drawn with the 50 ma not far behind. If you would look at the daily chart, it also is the location of the daily 200 ma. I see some solid confluence for the great short opportunity.  On the 1 hour, we can see a small rising trendline being respected which would be my entry signal once it was broken (assuming it cleared below the hourly 50 ma as well). Although that would be my entry signal, I would like a higher retracement, preferably that .0350 area.








 

NZDUSD

The 4 hour produced a very ugly candle during the NFP's Friday morning. I won't consider it a short term bullish candle yet, however anything can happen so I'll just wait and see what price action produces going forward. What I do feel confident in saying is that the candle could hint that the pair will make it's way back up to the 8250 area, the top of this month long range channel. I will be looking for a short opportunity in that area if it presents itself and ride with the bears back down to 8150 level. If I like the price action at that level, I'll hold my short entry down to the 8100 level, nothing more. 

EURUSD Trading Plan for Week of 4/1

EURUSD

Starting with the daily chart, nothing extremely bullish, however we're still above the daily 50 ma. We're also above this major weekly trendline which can cause a bullish case (arrow 1). My ideal entry would be a bounce off of the weekly trendline for a nice long position placing my stop below that very trendwall. My alternate entry option would be a breakout above this descending trendline on the hourly chart with the hourly 50 ma NOT far behind that initial breakout. Switching down to the 4hr we can see an ugly wick rejecting the 50 ma and .3280 area which occurred around the time of some fundamental news announcements. Regardless of the wick, we're above the 4hr 50 ma which still is to be considered as bullish pressure, not bullish price action, at least not yet IMO. Looking at the hourly, as stated before, I'm looking for price to retrace back down to the .3280 area (weekly trendwall). At that point, I'm waiting for price to pierce and close above the 50 ma as well as stick close as possible to the trendwall. Why? I'm looking to have the oppurtunity to place my stop below the hourly 50 ma AND that .3280 support area to give me a favorable R:R. My alternate would be to have the hourly 50 ma squeeze price above the descending trendline and then place my stop below the 50 ma AND the broken resistance now acting as support.

My Audusd and Nzdud trades.

AUDUSD

I wanted to get in closer to the .0550 area but nonetheless, price was resisted and rejected. At this point, I'm looking to break under the hourly 50 ma ALONG with some other for of support. On the hourly, we can a nice bear candle slicing through the 50 + 200 ma's.I placed my stop above the 2 ma's as well as this rising trendline. I would have entered the trade regardless of the trendwall, so I do not all mind the extra form of support (Now Resistance). Looking at the 4hr chart, we produced a nice wick above the 100 ma and 0550 area. We took a spill right under this weekly descending trendline and broke below 0450. My 1st TP area will be .0380 and I'll just simply close out the entire trade at .0335 which is last week's low. 
     
Risk = 40 pips        
Overall Reward = 186 pips             Not bad.




NZDUSD

On the hourly, we broke under the 50 ma as well as the .8200 area which gave me the signal to entered my trade. I looked at the 4 hour and immediately realized the bearish shooting star producing a wick above the .8250 area and under the rising trendwall. That area also had some resistance from the 200 ma. My TP area will be at .8100 for 90 pips, a perfect 3:1 trade.

Week of 3/25 Trading Plan

With my trading strategy, I'm still looking for buying opportunities being above the daily 50 MA. It's been in between this weekly trendwall (arrow) and .3020 since the end of January, breaking out once to the upside but immediately erased the gains. Last couple of days it has been finding support around the .3180 level which has recently corresponded with the daily 50 MA. Switching down to the 1hr, I'm looking at 2 possible entry opportunities. The 1st possible entry I will look at will be a pullback to this lower trendwall, SHOW SUPPORT ACTION (especially on the 4 hr chart), and then close above the 1 hr 50 MA (which should get dragged down a little bit, hopefully). I would like to be able to place my stop-loss below BOTH the 50 MA and lower trendwall. That would be my ideal entry. The other entry I will look at as a possibility would be for price to stall until the 50 MA is able to catch up and then look for a break above this upper trendwall, placing my stop below the upper trendwall AND the 50 MA. My targets will be .3380 and then .3480. Looking for nothing less than  2.5:1 RR because once EurUsd decides where she wants to go, she'll run and she'll run HARD.

Upcoming News Announcements (EST):
Monday
          German IFO - 5am
          US Pending Home Sales - 10am
Tuesday
          US Consumer Confidence -10am
          Bernanke Lecture -12:45pm
Wednesday
          GBP GDP - 4:30 am
          German CPI - 8am
          US Durable Goods Order - 8:30am
Thursday
          German Unemployment Change - 3:55am
          US GDP - 8:30am
Friday
          USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core - 8:30am
          USD U. of Michigan Confidence - 9:55am

Trading Plan for Week of 3/18

EUR/USD

My bias is still to go short euro-dollar hopefully around the .3180 area. My second target to go short would be at .3250 in case my .3180 signal does not present itself. I'll remain bearish until the market is able to get above .3250 and establish support. It's pretty strong resistance since we have the .38 fib and Weekly trendwall intersecting each other showing confluence. We're facing the Daily 50 ma so if we can break the under 1hr 50 ma along with another form of support (fib level, psych level, trendwall etc.), I'll short and place my stop above both forms of resistance. My target would be back down at .3020. If Daily bars due run up to the .3250 area, I'll look for a bearish 4hr signal and enter on the 1Hr in the same manner, breaking under the 50 ma and other support area.

News Announcements (ET)

German Producers Prices - Tuesday , 3 a.m
Bank of England Minutes - Wednesday 5:30 a.m




AUD/USD

We're still under the 50 MA so I'm still looking to short this pair. It tested .0520 which is the Weekly 50 MA and was rejected at the close of the week. Weekly chart can make a case for some bullish price action, however I'll wait until we get back above daily 50 MA. I hope to get short around .0650-.0680 area if my entry signal presents itself. I would hope to get under the 1hr 50 MA and be able to place my stop loss above the 1 hr 50 MA as well as .0650-.0680 for a nice R:R. My target would be .0520 for 100-130 pips.

Weekly Chart - AUDUSD

NZD/USD

This pair can also make a case for some bullish price action testing the Weekly 50 MA, twice at that. Since we are still under the Daily 50 MA, I'm still looking to short the pair. With this daily trendwall, if we stay under the daily 50 MA, I'll looking to enter short if we can break under the 1hr 50 Ma along with that daily trendwall so I can place my stop above the confluence. If I can get a decent entry price, I'll look to take the pair back down to .8150, looking to gain a solid 100 pips off this trade if I like my chances.


Weekly Chart - NZDUSD

News Announcements for AUD and NZD (ET)
Australian Reserve Bank Minutes - Monday 8:30 p.m
New Zealand Quarterly GDP - Wednesday 5:45 p.m
Canadian Consumer Price Index - Friday 7:00 a.m

My Eurusd trade, currently up +190 pips.

Let me start by saying I actually entered this trade on Friday going into the weekend, but hey I had my reasons lol. I have been waiting for the opportunity to go "anti-euro" for a while ever since it struggled to get above the 100 ma (black) cleanly. It found resistance in the .3500 area and shot  back down for a nice engulfing bear candle (arrow 1). At that point I was looking to get under the .25% deviation envelope of the 50 ma (blue). I actually entered first at the close of this trendwall and 50 ma break (arrow 2) and got stopped out from market reaction of the European summit, probably shorts covering ahead of the weekend. I lost 100 pips, ouch! Eh o well, on to the next trade. I decided to play the bounce off of the lower envelope band of the 50 ma considering the fact I could get a good R:R still being below the 50 ma and below this nice trendwall (arrow 3). I figured if the summit proceeded as optimistically rumors had it, we would definitely have seen a bigger jump IMO; the market simply struggled. I got in and with the news of today's Moody's credit downgrade possibility,  rode with the bears down to .3200 -.3180 where there's monthly trendwall action. This is the same trendwall I have had my eyes on since before Thanksgiving. I have seen as much as 200 pips but took profits 180, not bad. I closed half and I'll wait to see what price action tells me. If I don't see any bearish action next London session I'll probably pull out, if not, I'll ride down some more.

I wouldn't expect eur/usd to nosedive like it did in the beginning of January, but the way things are going now, I wouldn't be surprised.

What I'm seeing from Eur/usd

I was able to enter long when we first crossed back above the 50 MA. We also broke out of this trendwall located at arrow #1 and as you can notice came back and tested that same trendwall with a nice wick (arrow 2). I am also keeping in mind the fact that that wick was formed this past Friday which could have resulted from sellers covering their shorts before the weekend. You can see the market completely stalled at the 100 MA while also breaking back under this daily trendwall (arrow 3) that I drew a little before Thanksgiving. While its above RSI support on the 4Hr,  it is currently coming off of the daily RSI resistance. So far my trade isn't looking how I would want it to but nonetheless I won't pull out until my SL is hit. At that point, I'll be ready to flip my position and go short.. I have some psychological support at .3400 but I definitely don't think that will hold very strongly. The signals are there for this to continue its advance to 38.2, but I'm focusing on this EU summit to hopefully meet in a positive manner in order for the market to make these moves.

Here's a view of the daily chart to let you view the market getting back under the daily trendwall mentioned previously. This is bearish in my eyes despite my position however when my setup presents itself, I must take it. If no positive progression comes out of Europe, this might be the driving factor that will take us back down to the monthly trendwall that I have been eying for a couple of weeks now (arrow 2). If that does happen, I will be ready to enter short and ride the wave.

Here's a quick view of the monthly chart to let you view the trendline I drew and mentioned in my last post.