Saturday, April 7, 2012
Week of 4/8 trading plan
The Euro has continued to struggle and now the optimism that investors once had is now gone, again. We now have produced a very sexy head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with my neckline drawn at 3020. Looking at the 4 hour, I would like to see a retracement back up to the 3150-3180 area for a short opportunity. I see the 4 hr 50 ma starting to curl rather strongly which indicates solid downside pressure. If I can get a short in the 3150-3180 area, my TP would be located around the .3020 area.
Right now on the 4hr, my primary focus is this .0350 area. I have horizontal drawn with the 50 ma not far behind. If you would look at the daily chart, it also is the location of the daily 200 ma. I see some solid confluence for the great short opportunity. On the 1 hour, we can see a small rising trendline being respected which would be my entry signal once it was broken (assuming it cleared below the hourly 50 ma as well). Although that would be my entry signal, I would like a higher retracement, preferably that .0350 area.
The 4 hour produced a very ugly candle during the NFP's Friday morning. I won't consider it a short term bullish candle yet, however anything can happen so I'll just wait and see what price action produces going forward. What I do feel confident in saying is that the candle could hint that the pair will make it's way back up to the 8250 area, the top of this month long range channel. I will be looking for a short opportunity in that area if it presents itself and ride with the bears back down to 8150 level. If I like the price action at that level, I'll hold my short entry down to the 8100 level, nothing more.