Sunday, August 19, 2012

Still holding $nzdusd long positions.

I am still holding my 2 long entries on the nzd/usd. I'm looking at the 38 fib level from July 24th swing up as intermediate support. As you can see, this level is very active with choosing a direction when price action tests or even comes close to this level and seems to have held for about 18 open market hours. You can also notice some confluence around the current 38 fib area with this rising trendwall I have drawn from the end of June.I am looking for 90 pips which would create a 2:1 RR and on my second entry I am looking for 80pips which would        create a 4:1 RR.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Pulled long Trigger on $gbpjpy

I entered my long position at 123.36 on the one hour stochastics cross as well as the supporting price action of candles beginning to show wicks testing areas below the hourly 200 MA. On the 4 hour I am right above the 4hr 50 MA. If you also take a look at the 4hr chart, you can see a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline at the 123.80 area (4hr 100 MA). I am hoping that my entry is positioned for the pre-meditated rally to test/break that neckline.Nonetheless, I am aiming for 124.25 for a 3:1 RR. On the daily chart we can have a stochastic cross along which signals some buying potential. Along with that buying potential, the market produced a hammer candle with its wick testing below the 123.00 area of support. 

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Trading Plan: Week of 6/24

EURUSD- Once the market opens back up on Sunday, I will first move my stop on my short position to the high of this candle (arrow) locking in 70 pips. Slow Stochastics are hinting at a cross and as price stalls at the 4hr 100 ma, we might be due for a bounce. This is also suggesting if we don't open with a gap that will stop me out. I'll look to reenter in the .2600-2650 region. My ultimate short term target is .2450

Friday, May 18, 2012

Trading Plan for Week of 5/20/12 EURUSD and EURJPY


We ending the week with some short covering right at the weekly trendwall dating back to the low of June 2010. The market produced a "not very sexy" hammer which could suggest some further much needed correction is in order. Since we did not close inside of that trendwall, I may look to short on Sunday's open if price action suggests. Nonetheless I am thinking that price will rise to the .2880-.3000 area which I would like the opportunity to short again. Target area will be defined depending on what entry I chose to exercise.


The hammer on the daily chart looks a lot more appealing than the eurusd chart. With that daily candlestick along with an oversold RSI reading suggests a possible run up to the 102.20 area at which point I will look to short if the signal presents itself. If i do short at that area, I will look to ride back down to the 100.20 area for about 215 pips. On the 1 hr chart, we can see this small head and shoulders pattern with the neckline looking like it has been breached and broken. That pattern can suggest some more bullish momo.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Target area for $audusd short.

I entered this trade on Friday after I seen the break of the rising trendwall and hourly 50 ma. Obviously I caught the action a little bit late, but I was still able to get a favorable RR ratio. It opened with a gap down from looming Spain debt concerns and now is looking for support. Currently battling the 4hr 50 ma (3150) area, I'll be looking at .0280 as my first target and then closing the rest of my position at 0250. I have .0350 as my resistance and any 4hr candle closings above that area and I'll maybe get stopped out just in case it decides to reverse.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Week of 4/8 trading plan

The Euro has continued to struggle and now the optimism that investors once had is now gone, again. We now have produced a very sexy head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with my neckline drawn at 3020. Looking at the 4 hour, I would like to see a retracement back up to the 3150-3180 area for a short opportunity. I see the 4 hr 50 ma starting to curl rather strongly which indicates solid downside pressure. If I can get a short in the 3150-3180 area, my TP would be located around the .3020 area.



Right now on the 4hr, my primary focus is this .0350 area. I have horizontal drawn with the 50 ma not far behind. If you would look at the daily chart, it also is the location of the daily 200 ma. I see some solid confluence for the great short opportunity.  On the 1 hour, we can see a small rising trendline being respected which would be my entry signal once it was broken (assuming it cleared below the hourly 50 ma as well). Although that would be my entry signal, I would like a higher retracement, preferably that .0350 area.



The 4 hour produced a very ugly candle during the NFP's Friday morning. I won't consider it a short term bullish candle yet, however anything can happen so I'll just wait and see what price action produces going forward. What I do feel confident in saying is that the candle could hint that the pair will make it's way back up to the 8250 area, the top of this month long range channel. I will be looking for a short opportunity in that area if it presents itself and ride with the bears back down to 8150 level. If I like the price action at that level, I'll hold my short entry down to the 8100 level, nothing more. 

Monday, April 2, 2012

EURUSD Trading Plan for Week of 4/1


Starting with the daily chart, nothing extremely bullish, however we're still above the daily 50 ma. We're also above this major weekly trendline which can cause a bullish case (arrow 1). My ideal entry would be a bounce off of the weekly trendline for a nice long position placing my stop below that very trendwall. My alternate entry option would be a breakout above this descending trendline on the hourly chart with the hourly 50 ma NOT far behind that initial breakout. Switching down to the 4hr we can see an ugly wick rejecting the 50 ma and .3280 area which occurred around the time of some fundamental news announcements. Regardless of the wick, we're above the 4hr 50 ma which still is to be considered as bullish pressure, not bullish price action, at least not yet IMO. Looking at the hourly, as stated before, I'm looking for price to retrace back down to the .3280 area (weekly trendwall). At that point, I'm waiting for price to pierce and close above the 50 ma as well as stick close as possible to the trendwall. Why? I'm looking to have the oppurtunity to place my stop below the hourly 50 ma AND that .3280 support area to give me a favorable R:R. My alternate would be to have the hourly 50 ma squeeze price above the descending trendline and then place my stop below the 50 ma AND the broken resistance now acting as support.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

My Audusd and Nzdud trades.


I wanted to get in closer to the .0550 area but nonetheless, price was resisted and rejected. At this point, I'm looking to break under the hourly 50 ma ALONG with some other for of support. On the hourly, we can a nice bear candle slicing through the 50 + 200 ma's.I placed my stop above the 2 ma's as well as this rising trendline. I would have entered the trade regardless of the trendwall, so I do not all mind the extra form of support (Now Resistance). Looking at the 4hr chart, we produced a nice wick above the 100 ma and 0550 area. We took a spill right under this weekly descending trendline and broke below 0450. My 1st TP area will be .0380 and I'll just simply close out the entire trade at .0335 which is last week's low. 
Risk = 40 pips        
Overall Reward = 186 pips             Not bad.


On the hourly, we broke under the 50 ma as well as the .8200 area which gave me the signal to entered my trade. I looked at the 4 hour and immediately realized the bearish shooting star producing a wick above the .8250 area and under the rising trendwall. That area also had some resistance from the 200 ma. My TP area will be at .8100 for 90 pips, a perfect 3:1 trade.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Week of 3/25 Trading Plan

With my trading strategy, I'm still looking for buying opportunities being above the daily 50 MA. It's been in between this weekly trendwall (arrow) and .3020 since the end of January, breaking out once to the upside but immediately erased the gains. Last couple of days it has been finding support around the .3180 level which has recently corresponded with the daily 50 MA. Switching down to the 1hr, I'm looking at 2 possible entry opportunities. The 1st possible entry I will look at will be a pullback to this lower trendwall, SHOW SUPPORT ACTION (especially on the 4 hr chart), and then close above the 1 hr 50 MA (which should get dragged down a little bit, hopefully). I would like to be able to place my stop-loss below BOTH the 50 MA and lower trendwall. That would be my ideal entry. The other entry I will look at as a possibility would be for price to stall until the 50 MA is able to catch up and then look for a break above this upper trendwall, placing my stop below the upper trendwall AND the 50 MA. My targets will be .3380 and then .3480. Looking for nothing less than  2.5:1 RR because once EurUsd decides where she wants to go, she'll run and she'll run HARD.

Upcoming News Announcements (EST):
          German IFO - 5am
          US Pending Home Sales - 10am
          US Consumer Confidence -10am
          Bernanke Lecture -12:45pm
          GBP GDP - 4:30 am
          German CPI - 8am
          US Durable Goods Order - 8:30am
          German Unemployment Change - 3:55am
          US GDP - 8:30am
          USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core - 8:30am
          USD U. of Michigan Confidence - 9:55am

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Trading Plan for Week of 3/18


My bias is still to go short euro-dollar hopefully around the .3180 area. My second target to go short would be at .3250 in case my .3180 signal does not present itself. I'll remain bearish until the market is able to get above .3250 and establish support. It's pretty strong resistance since we have the .38 fib and Weekly trendwall intersecting each other showing confluence. We're facing the Daily 50 ma so if we can break the under 1hr 50 ma along with another form of support (fib level, psych level, trendwall etc.), I'll short and place my stop above both forms of resistance. My target would be back down at .3020. If Daily bars due run up to the .3250 area, I'll look for a bearish 4hr signal and enter on the 1Hr in the same manner, breaking under the 50 ma and other support area.

News Announcements (ET)

German Producers Prices - Tuesday , 3 a.m
Bank of England Minutes - Wednesday 5:30 a.m


We're still under the 50 MA so I'm still looking to short this pair. It tested .0520 which is the Weekly 50 MA and was rejected at the close of the week. Weekly chart can make a case for some bullish price action, however I'll wait until we get back above daily 50 MA. I hope to get short around .0650-.0680 area if my entry signal presents itself. I would hope to get under the 1hr 50 MA and be able to place my stop loss above the 1 hr 50 MA as well as .0650-.0680 for a nice R:R. My target would be .0520 for 100-130 pips.

Weekly Chart - AUDUSD


This pair can also make a case for some bullish price action testing the Weekly 50 MA, twice at that. Since we are still under the Daily 50 MA, I'm still looking to short the pair. With this daily trendwall, if we stay under the daily 50 MA, I'll looking to enter short if we can break under the 1hr 50 Ma along with that daily trendwall so I can place my stop above the confluence. If I can get a decent entry price, I'll look to take the pair back down to .8150, looking to gain a solid 100 pips off this trade if I like my chances.

Weekly Chart - NZDUSD

News Announcements for AUD and NZD (ET)
Australian Reserve Bank Minutes - Monday 8:30 p.m
New Zealand Quarterly GDP - Wednesday 5:45 p.m
Canadian Consumer Price Index - Friday 7:00 a.m