Tuesday, March 27, 2012

My Audusd and Nzdud trades.


I wanted to get in closer to the .0550 area but nonetheless, price was resisted and rejected. At this point, I'm looking to break under the hourly 50 ma ALONG with some other for of support. On the hourly, we can a nice bear candle slicing through the 50 + 200 ma's.I placed my stop above the 2 ma's as well as this rising trendline. I would have entered the trade regardless of the trendwall, so I do not all mind the extra form of support (Now Resistance). Looking at the 4hr chart, we produced a nice wick above the 100 ma and 0550 area. We took a spill right under this weekly descending trendline and broke below 0450. My 1st TP area will be .0380 and I'll just simply close out the entire trade at .0335 which is last week's low. 
Risk = 40 pips        
Overall Reward = 186 pips             Not bad.


On the hourly, we broke under the 50 ma as well as the .8200 area which gave me the signal to entered my trade. I looked at the 4 hour and immediately realized the bearish shooting star producing a wick above the .8250 area and under the rising trendwall. That area also had some resistance from the 200 ma. My TP area will be at .8100 for 90 pips, a perfect 3:1 trade.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Week of 3/25 Trading Plan

With my trading strategy, I'm still looking for buying opportunities being above the daily 50 MA. It's been in between this weekly trendwall (arrow) and .3020 since the end of January, breaking out once to the upside but immediately erased the gains. Last couple of days it has been finding support around the .3180 level which has recently corresponded with the daily 50 MA. Switching down to the 1hr, I'm looking at 2 possible entry opportunities. The 1st possible entry I will look at will be a pullback to this lower trendwall, SHOW SUPPORT ACTION (especially on the 4 hr chart), and then close above the 1 hr 50 MA (which should get dragged down a little bit, hopefully). I would like to be able to place my stop-loss below BOTH the 50 MA and lower trendwall. That would be my ideal entry. The other entry I will look at as a possibility would be for price to stall until the 50 MA is able to catch up and then look for a break above this upper trendwall, placing my stop below the upper trendwall AND the 50 MA. My targets will be .3380 and then .3480. Looking for nothing less than  2.5:1 RR because once EurUsd decides where she wants to go, she'll run and she'll run HARD.

Upcoming News Announcements (EST):
          German IFO - 5am
          US Pending Home Sales - 10am
          US Consumer Confidence -10am
          Bernanke Lecture -12:45pm
          GBP GDP - 4:30 am
          German CPI - 8am
          US Durable Goods Order - 8:30am
          German Unemployment Change - 3:55am
          US GDP - 8:30am
          USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core - 8:30am
          USD U. of Michigan Confidence - 9:55am

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Trading Plan for Week of 3/18


My bias is still to go short euro-dollar hopefully around the .3180 area. My second target to go short would be at .3250 in case my .3180 signal does not present itself. I'll remain bearish until the market is able to get above .3250 and establish support. It's pretty strong resistance since we have the .38 fib and Weekly trendwall intersecting each other showing confluence. We're facing the Daily 50 ma so if we can break the under 1hr 50 ma along with another form of support (fib level, psych level, trendwall etc.), I'll short and place my stop above both forms of resistance. My target would be back down at .3020. If Daily bars due run up to the .3250 area, I'll look for a bearish 4hr signal and enter on the 1Hr in the same manner, breaking under the 50 ma and other support area.

News Announcements (ET)

German Producers Prices - Tuesday , 3 a.m
Bank of England Minutes - Wednesday 5:30 a.m


We're still under the 50 MA so I'm still looking to short this pair. It tested .0520 which is the Weekly 50 MA and was rejected at the close of the week. Weekly chart can make a case for some bullish price action, however I'll wait until we get back above daily 50 MA. I hope to get short around .0650-.0680 area if my entry signal presents itself. I would hope to get under the 1hr 50 MA and be able to place my stop loss above the 1 hr 50 MA as well as .0650-.0680 for a nice R:R. My target would be .0520 for 100-130 pips.

Weekly Chart - AUDUSD


This pair can also make a case for some bullish price action testing the Weekly 50 MA, twice at that. Since we are still under the Daily 50 MA, I'm still looking to short the pair. With this daily trendwall, if we stay under the daily 50 MA, I'll looking to enter short if we can break under the 1hr 50 Ma along with that daily trendwall so I can place my stop above the confluence. If I can get a decent entry price, I'll look to take the pair back down to .8150, looking to gain a solid 100 pips off this trade if I like my chances.

Weekly Chart - NZDUSD

News Announcements for AUD and NZD (ET)
Australian Reserve Bank Minutes - Monday 8:30 p.m
New Zealand Quarterly GDP - Wednesday 5:45 p.m
Canadian Consumer Price Index - Friday 7:00 a.m