Monday, December 12, 2011

My Eurusd trade, currently up +190 pips.

Let me start by saying I actually entered this trade on Friday going into the weekend, but hey I had my reasons lol. I have been waiting for the opportunity to go "anti-euro" for a while ever since it struggled to get above the 100 ma (black) cleanly. It found resistance in the .3500 area and shot  back down for a nice engulfing bear candle (arrow 1). At that point I was looking to get under the .25% deviation envelope of the 50 ma (blue). I actually entered first at the close of this trendwall and 50 ma break (arrow 2) and got stopped out from market reaction of the European summit, probably shorts covering ahead of the weekend. I lost 100 pips, ouch! Eh o well, on to the next trade. I decided to play the bounce off of the lower envelope band of the 50 ma considering the fact I could get a good R:R still being below the 50 ma and below this nice trendwall (arrow 3). I figured if the summit proceeded as optimistically rumors had it, we would definitely have seen a bigger jump IMO; the market simply struggled. I got in and with the news of today's Moody's credit downgrade possibility,  rode with the bears down to .3200 -.3180 where there's monthly trendwall action. This is the same trendwall I have had my eyes on since before Thanksgiving. I have seen as much as 200 pips but took profits 180, not bad. I closed half and I'll wait to see what price action tells me. If I don't see any bearish action next London session I'll probably pull out, if not, I'll ride down some more.

I wouldn't expect eur/usd to nosedive like it did in the beginning of January, but the way things are going now, I wouldn't be surprised.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

What I'm seeing from Eur/usd

I was able to enter long when we first crossed back above the 50 MA. We also broke out of this trendwall located at arrow #1 and as you can notice came back and tested that same trendwall with a nice wick (arrow 2). I am also keeping in mind the fact that that wick was formed this past Friday which could have resulted from sellers covering their shorts before the weekend. You can see the market completely stalled at the 100 MA while also breaking back under this daily trendwall (arrow 3) that I drew a little before Thanksgiving. While its above RSI support on the 4Hr,  it is currently coming off of the daily RSI resistance. So far my trade isn't looking how I would want it to but nonetheless I won't pull out until my SL is hit. At that point, I'll be ready to flip my position and go short.. I have some psychological support at .3400 but I definitely don't think that will hold very strongly. The signals are there for this to continue its advance to 38.2, but I'm focusing on this EU summit to hopefully meet in a positive manner in order for the market to make these moves.

Here's a view of the daily chart to let you view the market getting back under the daily trendwall mentioned previously. This is bearish in my eyes despite my position however when my setup presents itself, I must take it. If no positive progression comes out of Europe, this might be the driving factor that will take us back down to the monthly trendwall that I have been eying for a couple of weeks now (arrow 2). If that does happen, I will be ready to enter short and ride the wave.

Here's a quick view of the monthly chart to let you view the trendline I drew and mentioned in my last post.