Monday, December 12, 2011

My Eurusd trade, currently up +190 pips.

Let me start by saying I actually entered this trade on Friday going into the weekend, but hey I had my reasons lol. I have been waiting for the opportunity to go "anti-euro" for a while ever since it struggled to get above the 100 ma (black) cleanly. It found resistance in the .3500 area and shot  back down for a nice engulfing bear candle (arrow 1). At that point I was looking to get under the .25% deviation envelope of the 50 ma (blue). I actually entered first at the close of this trendwall and 50 ma break (arrow 2) and got stopped out from market reaction of the European summit, probably shorts covering ahead of the weekend. I lost 100 pips, ouch! Eh o well, on to the next trade. I decided to play the bounce off of the lower envelope band of the 50 ma considering the fact I could get a good R:R still being below the 50 ma and below this nice trendwall (arrow 3). I figured if the summit proceeded as optimistically rumors had it, we would definitely have seen a bigger jump IMO; the market simply struggled. I got in and with the news of today's Moody's credit downgrade possibility,  rode with the bears down to .3200 -.3180 where there's monthly trendwall action. This is the same trendwall I have had my eyes on since before Thanksgiving. I have seen as much as 200 pips but took profits 180, not bad. I closed half and I'll wait to see what price action tells me. If I don't see any bearish action next London session I'll probably pull out, if not, I'll ride down some more.

I wouldn't expect eur/usd to nosedive like it did in the beginning of January, but the way things are going now, I wouldn't be surprised.

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