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SmithInvestors is an entity created for those interested in Foreign Exchange (Forex) market analysis. Austin Smith, author of this blog, has designed this site to inform, share, and develop his ideas he feels should be communicated with other traders and investors. This site is an "open book" and he has committed to updating the page frequently with articles and videos.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
What I'm seeing from Eur/usd
I was able to enter long when we first crossed back above the 50 MA. We also broke out of this trendwall located at arrow #1 and as you can notice came back and tested that same trendwall with a nice wick (arrow 2). I am also keeping in mind the fact that that wick was formed this past Friday which could have resulted from sellers covering their shorts before the weekend. You can see the market completely stalled at the 100 MA while also breaking back under this daily trendwall (arrow 3) that I drew a little before Thanksgiving. While its above RSI support on the 4Hr, it is currently coming off of the daily RSI resistance. So far my trade isn't looking how I would want it to but nonetheless I won't pull out until my SL is hit. At that point, I'll be ready to flip my position and go short.. I have some psychological support at .3400 but I definitely don't think that will hold very strongly. The signals are there for this to continue its advance to 38.2, but I'm focusing on this EU summit to hopefully meet in a positive manner in order for the market to make these moves.
Here's a view of the daily chart to let you view the market getting back under the daily trendwall mentioned previously. This is bearish in my eyes despite my position however when my setup presents itself, I must take it. If no positive progression comes out of Europe, this might be the driving factor that will take us back down to the monthly trendwall that I have been eying for a couple of weeks now (arrow 2). If that does happen, I will be ready to enter short and ride the wave.
Here's a quick view of the monthly chart to let you view the trendline I drew and mentioned in my last post.