Sunday, April 15, 2012

Target area for $audusd short.

I entered this trade on Friday after I seen the break of the rising trendwall and hourly 50 ma. Obviously I caught the action a little bit late, but I was still able to get a favorable RR ratio. It opened with a gap down from looming Spain debt concerns and now is looking for support. Currently battling the 4hr 50 ma (3150) area, I'll be looking at .0280 as my first target and then closing the rest of my position at 0250. I have .0350 as my resistance and any 4hr candle closings above that area and I'll maybe get stopped out just in case it decides to reverse.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Week of 4/8 trading plan

The Euro has continued to struggle and now the optimism that investors once had is now gone, again. We now have produced a very sexy head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with my neckline drawn at 3020. Looking at the 4 hour, I would like to see a retracement back up to the 3150-3180 area for a short opportunity. I see the 4 hr 50 ma starting to curl rather strongly which indicates solid downside pressure. If I can get a short in the 3150-3180 area, my TP would be located around the .3020 area.



Right now on the 4hr, my primary focus is this .0350 area. I have horizontal drawn with the 50 ma not far behind. If you would look at the daily chart, it also is the location of the daily 200 ma. I see some solid confluence for the great short opportunity.  On the 1 hour, we can see a small rising trendline being respected which would be my entry signal once it was broken (assuming it cleared below the hourly 50 ma as well). Although that would be my entry signal, I would like a higher retracement, preferably that .0350 area.



The 4 hour produced a very ugly candle during the NFP's Friday morning. I won't consider it a short term bullish candle yet, however anything can happen so I'll just wait and see what price action produces going forward. What I do feel confident in saying is that the candle could hint that the pair will make it's way back up to the 8250 area, the top of this month long range channel. I will be looking for a short opportunity in that area if it presents itself and ride with the bears back down to 8150 level. If I like the price action at that level, I'll hold my short entry down to the 8100 level, nothing more. 

Monday, April 2, 2012

EURUSD Trading Plan for Week of 4/1


Starting with the daily chart, nothing extremely bullish, however we're still above the daily 50 ma. We're also above this major weekly trendline which can cause a bullish case (arrow 1). My ideal entry would be a bounce off of the weekly trendline for a nice long position placing my stop below that very trendwall. My alternate entry option would be a breakout above this descending trendline on the hourly chart with the hourly 50 ma NOT far behind that initial breakout. Switching down to the 4hr we can see an ugly wick rejecting the 50 ma and .3280 area which occurred around the time of some fundamental news announcements. Regardless of the wick, we're above the 4hr 50 ma which still is to be considered as bullish pressure, not bullish price action, at least not yet IMO. Looking at the hourly, as stated before, I'm looking for price to retrace back down to the .3280 area (weekly trendwall). At that point, I'm waiting for price to pierce and close above the 50 ma as well as stick close as possible to the trendwall. Why? I'm looking to have the oppurtunity to place my stop below the hourly 50 ma AND that .3280 support area to give me a favorable R:R. My alternate would be to have the hourly 50 ma squeeze price above the descending trendline and then place my stop below the 50 ma AND the broken resistance now acting as support.