My Audusd and Nzdud trades.

AUDUSD

I wanted to get in closer to the .0550 area but nonetheless, price was resisted and rejected. At this point, I'm looking to break under the hourly 50 ma ALONG with some other for of support. On the hourly, we can a nice bear candle slicing through the 50 + 200 ma's.I placed my stop above the 2 ma's as well as this rising trendline. I would have entered the trade regardless of the trendwall, so I do not all mind the extra form of support (Now Resistance). Looking at the 4hr chart, we produced a nice wick above the 100 ma and 0550 area. We took a spill right under this weekly descending trendline and broke below 0450. My 1st TP area will be .0380 and I'll just simply close out the entire trade at .0335 which is last week's low. 
     
Risk = 40 pips        
Overall Reward = 186 pips             Not bad.




NZDUSD

On the hourly, we broke under the 50 ma as well as the .8200 area which gave me the signal to entered my trade. I looked at the 4 hour and immediately realized the bearish shooting star producing a wick above the .8250 area and under the rising trendwall. That area also had some resistance from the 200 ma. My TP area will be at .8100 for 90 pips, a perfect 3:1 trade.

Week of 3/25 Trading Plan

With my trading strategy, I'm still looking for buying opportunities being above the daily 50 MA. It's been in between this weekly trendwall (arrow) and .3020 since the end of January, breaking out once to the upside but immediately erased the gains. Last couple of days it has been finding support around the .3180 level which has recently corresponded with the daily 50 MA. Switching down to the 1hr, I'm looking at 2 possible entry opportunities. The 1st possible entry I will look at will be a pullback to this lower trendwall, SHOW SUPPORT ACTION (especially on the 4 hr chart), and then close above the 1 hr 50 MA (which should get dragged down a little bit, hopefully). I would like to be able to place my stop-loss below BOTH the 50 MA and lower trendwall. That would be my ideal entry. The other entry I will look at as a possibility would be for price to stall until the 50 MA is able to catch up and then look for a break above this upper trendwall, placing my stop below the upper trendwall AND the 50 MA. My targets will be .3380 and then .3480. Looking for nothing less than  2.5:1 RR because once EurUsd decides where she wants to go, she'll run and she'll run HARD.

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Trading Plan for Week of 3/18

EUR/USD

My bias is still to go short euro-dollar hopefully around the .3180 area. My second target to go short would be at .3250 in case my .3180 signal does not present itself. I'll remain bearish until the market is able to get above .3250 and establish support. It's pretty strong resistance since we have the .38 fib and Weekly trendwall intersecting each other showing confluence. We're facing the Daily 50 ma so if we can break the under 1hr 50 ma along with another form of support (fib level, psych level, trendwall etc.), I'll short and place my stop above both forms of resistance. My target would be back down at .3020. If Daily bars due run up to the .3250 area, I'll look for a bearish 4hr signal and enter on the 1Hr in the same manner, breaking under the 50 ma and other support area.

News Announcements (ET)

German Producers Prices - Tuesday , 3 a.m
Bank of England Minutes - Wednesday 5:30 a.m




AUD/USD

We're still under the 50 MA so I'm still looking to short this pair. It tested .0520 which is the Weekly 50 MA and was rejected at the close of the week. Weekly chart can make a case for some bullish price action, however I'll wait until we get back above daily 50 MA. I hope to get short around .0650-.0680 area if my entry signal presents itself. I would hope to get under the 1hr 50 MA and be able to place my stop loss above the 1 hr 50 MA as well as .0650-.0680 for a nice R:R. My target would be .0520 for 100-130 pips.

Weekly Chart - AUDUSD

NZD/USD

This pair can also make a case for some bullish price action testing the Weekly 50 MA, twice at that. Since we are still under the Daily 50 MA, I'm still looking to short the pair. With this daily trendwall, if we stay under the daily 50 MA, I'll looking to enter short if we can break under the 1hr 50 Ma along with that daily trendwall so I can place my stop above the confluence. If I can get a decent entry price, I'll look to take the pair back down to .8150, looking to gain a solid 100 pips off this trade if I like my chances.


Weekly Chart - NZDUSD

News Announcements for AUD and NZD (ET)
Australian Reserve Bank Minutes - Monday 8:30 p.m
New Zealand Quarterly GDP - Wednesday 5:45 p.m
Canadian Consumer Price Index - Friday 7:00 a.m

My Eurusd trade, currently up +190 pips.

Let me start by saying I actually entered this trade on Friday going into the weekend, but hey I had my reasons lol. I have been waiting for the opportunity to go "anti-euro" for a while ever since it struggled to get above the 100 ma (black) cleanly. It found resistance in the .3500 area and shot  back down for a nice engulfing bear candle (arrow 1). At that point I was looking to get under the .25% deviation envelope of the 50 ma (blue). I actually entered first at the close of this trendwall and 50 ma break (arrow 2) and got stopped out from market reaction of the European summit, probably shorts covering ahead of the weekend. I lost 100 pips, ouch! Eh o well, on to the next trade. I decided to play the bounce off of the lower envelope band of the 50 ma considering the fact I could get a good R:R still being below the 50 ma and below this nice trendwall (arrow 3). I figured if the summit proceeded as optimistically rumors had it, we would definitely have seen a bigger jump IMO; the market simply struggled. I got in and with the news of today's Moody's credit downgrade possibility,  rode with the bears down to .3200 -.3180 where there's monthly trendwall action. This is the same trendwall I have had my eyes on since before Thanksgiving. I have seen as much as 200 pips but took profits 180, not bad. I closed half and I'll wait to see what price action tells me. If I don't see any bearish action next London session I'll probably pull out, if not, I'll ride down some more.

I wouldn't expect eur/usd to nosedive like it did in the beginning of January, but the way things are going now, I wouldn't be surprised.

What I'm seeing from Eur/usd

I was able to enter long when we first crossed back above the 50 MA. We also broke out of this trendwall located at arrow #1 and as you can notice came back and tested that same trendwall with a nice wick (arrow 2). I am also keeping in mind the fact that that wick was formed this past Friday which could have resulted from sellers covering their shorts before the weekend. You can see the market completely stalled at the 100 MA while also breaking back under this daily trendwall (arrow 3) that I drew a little before Thanksgiving. While its above RSI support on the 4Hr,  it is currently coming off of the daily RSI resistance. So far my trade isn't looking how I would want it to but nonetheless I won't pull out until my SL is hit. At that point, I'll be ready to flip my position and go short.. I have some psychological support at .3400 but I definitely don't think that will hold very strongly. The signals are there for this to continue its advance to 38.2, but I'm focusing on this EU summit to hopefully meet in a positive manner in order for the market to make these moves.

Here's a view of the daily chart to let you view the market getting back under the daily trendwall mentioned previously. This is bearish in my eyes despite my position however when my setup presents itself, I must take it. If no positive progression comes out of Europe, this might be the driving factor that will take us back down to the monthly trendwall that I have been eying for a couple of weeks now (arrow 2). If that does happen, I will be ready to enter short and ride the wave.

Here's a quick view of the monthly chart to let you view the trendline I drew and mentioned in my last post.

My First Blog Entry - My Eurusd second entry short

I entered my short trade once we got a solid close back under the 50 MA on the 4 hour chart. I enter my positions based on the 4 hour chart. I use moving average envelopes of .25% deviation which helps me determine the strength of the move away from the moving average. I usually aim for 200 pips while risking 75-100 depending how much support/resistance my stop is below/above. I noticed .3450 was particularly a solid support area that I wanted to see break before any attempts for price to continue down.

 Looking at the monthly chart, it is in the range of this flag pattern heading for support. As I entered my short entry, I appointed my target as the lower trendwall which would give me my the 200 pips I try to achieve and then some. .3450 was an area that was receiving a lot of attention since this was the probable gateway to that lower trendwall.

 Looking at that monthly trendwall on the weekly chart, we can see that last weeks price action down leaves the trend line exposed to AT LEAST be tested. It looks like I will reach my target and I will most likely close the rest of my position at that point. By that time, the 4hr RSI will be oversold and the Daily RSI will be at a value really close to 30. Therefore, I'm going to expect a pullback that I might be able to ride up before another move down. If I can get a long entry at a good price once I get a close above the 50 MA, I will have a very strong support area for my stop loss to be under. After all, I will be doing what every trader does, buying at support and selling at resistance in which this case I will become a buyer. Hopefully my first blog entry was helpful and understandable, for you will read a lot more from me.